January 26, 2025

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Notable market news this past week (26-Jan-25)

Here is the Skeptivest roundup of the latest market headlines for the week

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🇺🇸 Company executives are selling their stocks, despite US stocks roaring to a record

Insider sentiment remains subdued...: As of Jan. 22, only 98 companies reported insider purchases, while 447 recorded insider sales, resulting in a buy-sell ratio of 0.22, according to Washington Service data. With just over a week of trading left in January, this ratio is on track to be the lowest since records began in 1988.

...Despite US shares rallying: Shares of US companies roared to a record this week, seemingly shrugging off worries about tariffs, immigration and inflation

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☕️ Quick fire happenings to note

🌏 Global macro

• US inflation is not over: "If Trump's pro-inflationary policies take effect, the Fed's next move might be to hike rates rather than lower them. The central bank may even need to raise rates to recessionary levels to achieve any meaningful anti-inflationary impact." — Edward Harrison, The Everything Risk
• Trump "rather not" use tariffs on China: Donald Trump appeared to soften his approach toward China, saying in an interview with Fox News that he would “rather not” use tariffs. Asian stocks rallied and the dollar weakened. US stock futures were steady after the S&P 500 scaled a fresh peak.
• Saudi Arabia's $600mn investment to the US: Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman pledged to expand investments and trade with the U.S. by $600 billion over the next four years—a significant commitment equating to 55% of Saudi Arabia’s GDP. This pledge comes despite the kingdom running fiscal deficits, driven largely by substantial spending on Vision 2030, the Crown Prince's initiative to diversify the economy away from oil dependence.
• JPM's Jamie Dimon in Davos: Jamie Dimon downplayed tariff concerns, urging leaders to “get over it,” supporting Trump’s proposed levies as necessary for national security despite potential inflation. He also warned that markets are “kind of elevated,” with asset prices in the top 10-15% historically after the S&P 500’s strong two-year run. Dimon echoed Goldman CEO David Solomon, advising tempered investor expectations.
• Trump Demands Lower Interest Rates and Oil Prices: In a virtual address to the World Economic Forum, Trump called for the US to lower interest rates immediately and urged the world to follow suit, despite the Federal Reserve’s independence. He also pressed Saudi Arabia to reduce oil prices.

🏦 Individual stocks/companies

• Trump delayed TikTok ban: Trump delayed the TikTok ban, granting the platform 75 days to secure a buyer or face shutdown. He later floated the idea of a joint venture involving billionaire backers Elon Musk or Oracle Chairman Larry Ellison, potentially in partnership with the U.S. government.
• Electronic Arts (-18.76% past 5 days) tanks on weak sales in "Football" division: Electronic Arts took a hit yesterday, with its stock plummeting after slashing Q4 bookings guidance just nine trading days ahead of its February 4 earnings release. Shares tumbled as management cited weak sales in its Global "Football" (soccer) division. The real kicker? Blame was humorously shifted to the inventor of the "boring" sport.
• Netflix (+13.89% past 5 days) rallies on FY25 guidance: Netflix added a record 18.9M subscribers in Q4, reaching 302M, as price hikes, ad tiers, and live events drove growth. Revenue rose 16% YoY to $10.25B, with net income up 99% YoY to $1.87B, beating estimates. Shares soared on raised FY25 guidance despite mixed reviews for Squid Game 2.
• DeepSeek Launches AI Model Rivaling OpenAI’s Best: DeepSeek's new reasoning-focused model, R1, is said to outperform or match OpenAI’s o1 in math and coding tasks. Unlike US-made AI, R1 is open-source and free, challenging subscription-only models like ChatGPT Pro. Nvidia's Jim Fan notes R1's humanlike learning approach as a key step toward achieving artificial general intelligence.

🇸🇬 Singapore related

• MAS eases monetary policy for first time in five years, lowers core inflation forecast: Singapore's central bank has loosened monetary policy for the first time in five years, easing inflation and slowing the Singdollar's appreciation. Core inflation for 2025 is forecasted at 1%-2%, down from last year's 1.5%-2.5%.
• Grab contributed as much as 0.8% of Singapore GDP in 2023: Grab added S$5.2 billion to Singapore’s economy in 2023 through its on-demand services such as ride-hailing and delivery, an Oxford Economics report indicated.