Notable market news this past week (02-Mar-25)
Here is the Skeptivest roundup of the latest market headlines for the week
📈 Markets turn defensive as growth fears rise
Risk appetite fades as markets turn cautious: Fear has overtaken risk-taking, pushing the S&P 500 negative for the year while Treasuries extend their strongest start since 2020. A long-dated Treasury ETF is up 4% this month, while a broad equities ETF is down nearly 3%, marking the widest bond-equity gap since March 2020.
Growth concerns weight on markets: The US Consumer Confidence Index fell sharply to 98.3 in February, marking its steepest decline since August 2021, while inflation expectations rose to 6%. Trump’s return initially fueled hopes of tax cuts and deregulation, but slowing U.S. growth and new tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China have dampened sentiment. Citigroup’s economic surprise index is at its lowest since September, and Nvidia’s earnings have added to AI hype concerns.
Bonds rally amid safe-haven demand: Treasuries are gaining as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent pushes to lower yields, while calls for fiscal restraint, including from Elon Musk, add to demand. Despite Fed hawkishness, markets are prioritizing growth risks. “Markets have undergone a bit of a ‘growth scare,’” notes Michael Brown of Pepperstone.
Worries on sustainability of AI driven rally: Despite strong earnings, NVIDIA shares dropped 8.5%, reflecting investor worries over the sustainability of the AI-driven rally.
☕️ Quick fire happenings to note
🌏 Global macro
- China vows retaliation against Trump’s trade threats: China pledged to counter Donald Trump’s latest trade threats “with all necessary measures,” potentially including additional tariffs or tighter export controls. President Xi Jinping appears to be taking a long-term approach, resisting U.S. pressure while recognizing that Trump’s presidency has a limited timeline.
- Top 10% of US households drive half of consumer spending: The wealthiest 10% of American households—earning over $250,000 annually—now account for half of all consumer spending and at least a third of GDP. While high earners have always spent disproportionately, the gap between their consumption and the rest of the population has widened in recent years. This concentration of financial power poses risks, as their economic downturns could have broader consequences. “I’m not comfortable with it,” warns Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics.
- Investors snap up Russian-linked assets amid market reopening speculation: With speculation mounting that Russian financial markets could reopen within weeks, investors are rushing to gain exposure. In Hong Kong, shares of Moscow-based aluminum giant Rusal have surged 75% this month. In Vienna, Raiffeisen Bank—an Austrian lender with a Moscow-based subsidiary—has climbed 35% this year, while Hungary’s OTP Bank, which still operates in Russia, is up 11%.
- S&P puts France’s credit outlook to negative amid political, fiscal concerns: S&P Global Ratings revised France’s credit outlook to negative, citing rising government debt and a lack of political consensus to address the country’s persistent budget deficits. The move follows prolonged political turmoil, including last year’s snap election and the rise of the far-right National Rally party. While maintaining France’s AA- rating—seven notches above junk and on par with the Czech Republic and Slovenia—S&P flagged uncertain economic growth prospects as a key risk
- Trump cuts Zelensky’s visit short amid tense Oval Office exchange: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s White House visit ended abruptly after a heated exchange with former President Trump and Vice President JD Vance. In front of reporters, Trump and Vance criticized Zelensky for not showing enough gratitude for US aid, with Trump accusing him of gambling with global security. The confrontation raises doubts about the future of US military support for Ukraine as it continues its fight against Russia.
🏦 Individual stocks/companies
- Warner Bros. discovery (+5.04% past 5 days) surges on strong HBO performance: Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) shares jumped 4.8% after a rare strong quarter, driven by HBO’s momentum. The platform led streaming growth with 6.4m new subscribers, bringing its total to 116.9m, including smaller services like Discovery+. Q4 revenue rose 5% YoY to $2.65b, beating estimates, though full-year revenue of $10.03b fell short of the expected $10.19b. However, a surprise loss of $0.20 per share caught analysts off guard, who had forecasted a modest $0.01 profit.
- eBay (-7.09% past 5 days) slumps despite beating estimates: eBay shares tumbled 8.2% after management’s candid remarks on a “challenged macro environment” overshadowed a solid earnings beat. Q4 EPS of $1.25 and revenue of $2.58b topped estimates of $1.20 and $2.57b, respectively. However, weak guidance on gross merchandise volume—amid tariff uncertainties and concerns over the U.S. de minimis exemption—triggered the selloff.
- Krispy Kreme (-32.28% past 5 days) crashes on weak earnings and bleak outlook: Krispy Kreme (DNUT) shares plummeted 21.9% after a disastrous Q4, missing estimates with EPS of $0.01 on $404m in sales versus expectations of $0.10 and $414m. Revenue dropped 10% YoY, while full-year earnings fell 59%. Though a cybersecurity issue impacted results, the real blow came from its dire FY’25 forecast—expecting EPS of just $0.06, far below the $0.30 analysts had priced in.
- Nvidia (-8.83% past 5 days) shares drop despite strong Q4: Nvidia (NVDA) shares fell 8.5% despite a nearly perfect Q4 report, as declining gross margins led investors to take profits. While the report was solid, it didn’t provide a strong enough reason for new buyers to jump in. However, the company’s latest AI chip, Blackwell, has seen stellar production and demand, keeping the AI growth narrative alive and positioning Nvidia well for future advancements in the market.
- Tencent's new AI model, "Hunyuan Turbo S," claims to outperform DeepSeek by providing faster, more cost-efficient responses. This follows Alibaba's recent AI model release, also surpassing DeepSeek. Meanwhile, the race for AI-powered chips intensifies, with Nvidia’s sales growth slowing and Huawei producing cheaper chips despite US sanctions. As Chinese AI companies focus on efficiency, US firms like OpenAI may face pressure to reduce costs, while looming tariffs could further impact demand for high-end chips
- Microsoft to sunset Skype, pushes users to Teams: Microsoft announced it will shut down Skype in May, urging users to transition to Teams. Founded in 2003, Skype revolutionized long-distance communication with free voice and video calls, becoming a go-to service for years before being acquired by Microsoft for $8.5 billion in 2011. However, as the service became plagued with glitches and competition from FaceTime and WhatsApp grew, Skype's popularity waned.
🇸🇬 Singapore related
- Singapore on track to reach 2030 solar deployment goal, remains 'fully committed' to climate action: Singapore remains "fully committed" to climate action, with Senior Minister Teo Chee Hean emphasizing the country’s dedication to preparing for future challenges and opportunities. He announced that Singapore is on track to meet its solar deployment targets, aligning with global efforts under the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 1.5°C.
