Notable market news this past week (30-Mar-25)
Here is the Skeptivest roundup of the latest market headlines for the week
🇺🇸 Tariff uncertainty reigns, consumer sentiments fall
Tariff Uncertainty Reigns: Trump’s unpredictable tariff policy is keeping markets on edge. Days ago, he hinted at softer April 2 tariffs, sparking hopes for stability. Then came new tariffs on Venezuelan oil, followed by sweeping auto import duties, hammering automaker stocks. So much for predictability—investors are left scrambling.
Weak sentiment: Adding to concerns, US consumer sentiment fell to a two-year low of 57 in March, missing estimates, while long-term inflation expectations hit a 32-year high of 4.1%, per the University of Michigan. Short-term inflation expectations rose to 5%, the highest since 2022, and two-thirds of consumers now foresee rising unemployment—the most pessimistic outlook since 2009.
Market volatility intensifies: Trump’s tariff volatility is rattling markets, with even elite hedge fund managers struggling—one Citadel trader was fired after losing $60 million. Adding to the uncertainty, more global banks are slashing their S&P 500 forecasts for 2025, following Goldman’s lead.
Long-Term Perspective: While short-term uncertainty is high, history suggests markets may eventually adapt—just as they did following similar tariff turbulence in 2016.
☕️ Quick fire happenings to note
🌏 Global macro
- Trump’s 25% Tariffs on Cars: Winners and losers: President Trump’s 25% tariffs on imported cars and parts, set to take effect April 3, aim to boost U.S. manufacturing but may hurt both domestic and foreign automakers. Tesla is largely protected due to its U.S.-based production, though still impacted by foreign parts. Detroit’s Big Three (Ford, Stellantis, GM) and European and Asian automakers like Volkswagen and Toyota face significant challenges due to their reliance on foreign parts and manufacturing. Luxury brands such as BMW and Ferrari are also set to raise prices in response. Overall, the tariffs could increase car prices by $5,000 to $15,000.
- Myanmar hit by strongest earthquake in a century: A powerful 7.7-magnitude earthquake struck Myanmar on Friday, its strongest in a century, shaking buildings and prompting evacuations in Vietnam and Thailand. The quake, centered near Sagaing at a depth of 10 km, was followed by a 6.4-magnitude aftershock. At least one tower collapsed in Bangkok, and the death toll has risen to 154, with more casualties expected.
- Musk claims DOGE can cut $1tn in spending: Elon Musk told Fox he believes DOGE could slash $1 trillion in U.S. government spending by May—over half of the $1.8 trillion in non-defense discretionary spending for 2024. Achieving this within Trump’s first 130 days would be a monumental shift, highlighting DOGE's growing role in government transformation.
- Europe rejects Putin’s ceasefire terms, vows more sanctions: European leaders dismissed Putin’s demand to ease sanctions in exchange for a ceasefire, reaffirming their support for Ukraine after fresh Russian attacks. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Finnish President Alexander Stubb signaled more sanctions are coming, while Moscow appears to be stalling negotiations to pressure Washington.
- Li Ka-shing halts Panama deal amid US-China tensions: Hong Kong tycoon Li Ka-shing has reportedly scrapped plans to sell his Panama Canal ports to a BlackRock-led consortium, as geopolitical tensions mount.
🏦 Individual stocks/companies
- CoreWeave’s lackluster IPO signals AI caution: CoreWeave, an AI cloud company, is set to debut on the Nasdaq with a reduced valuation of $23 billion, down from the initial $32 billion target. Despite its $11.9 billion deal with OpenAI, the company's $8 billion debt and reliance on leased data centers have raised concerns. CoreWeave’s $1.5 billion IPO marks a more cautious start for AI-focused offerings, signaling a slower IPO market recovery. While private AI companies have seen a 60% rise, the US IPO market remains well below pre-pandemic levels. CoreWeave’s performance could impact other AI companies’ public listing plans.
- Door Tree (+8.58% past 5 days) surge: Dollar Tree’s stock surged after the company announced the sale of Family Dollar to a group of private equity firms. The sale marks the end of a problematic investment, as Dollar Tree had purchased Family Dollar for $8 billion but only received $1 billion from the sale. Family Dollar had been underperforming and was considered a weak point in Dollar Tree's portfolio.
- Pony AI (-30.36% past 5 days) stock tanks: Pony AI saw stock decline, which isn’t too surprising given its current challenges. The company reported a 29% drop in overall sales and a staggering 61% decline in robotaxi-specific sales. The push for autonomous vehicles may be further off than anticipated, leading to concerns about the company’s long-term viability and whether it’s a worthwhile investment.
🇸🇬 Singapore related
- Singapore’s factory output contracts in Feb'25: Singapore's manufacturing output fell 1.3% year-on-year in February, ending a seven-month expansion streak due to declines in the biomedical and electronics sectors. This missed economists' 7% growth forecast and marked a sharp reversal from January’s 8% growth. Excluding the volatile biomedical sector, industrial production rose 0.3% year-on-year.
- Singapore core inflation drops to 0.6% in Feb'25: Singapore’s core inflation fell to 0.6% in February, the lowest in nearly four years, driven by slower price increases in most categories except retail and other goods. This marked a further decline from January’s 0.8%. Headline inflation also eased to 0.9%, below economists' expectations, with the Monetary Authority of Singapore projecting inflationary pressures to be offset by weaker global demand.
