The Weekly Market Monitor

Your Weekly Digest of Market News and Analysis from the Editors

September 24, 2023

Notable market news this past week (24-Sep-23)

Here is the Skeptivest roundup of the latest market headlines for the week

📉 Interest rate updates

No surprise from the Fed: As the markets had expected, the Fed left benchmark interest rate unchanged. Nevertheless, markets tanked. The Fed signaled borrowing costs will likely stay higher for longer after 1 more hike this year. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said “we are committed to achieving and sustaining a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to our 2% goal over time.” He emphasized the Fed will “proceed carefully” as it assesses incoming data and the evolving outlook and risks—echoing remarks he made at Jackson Hole last month.

ECB intend to maintain 4% interest rate: Francois Villeroy de Galhau, a member of the Governing Council, has stated that the European Central Bank intends to maintain a 4% interest rate for as long as necessary to control inflation, indicating a reluctance to consider future rate hikes at this point. These remarks follow the ECB's decision to raise borrowing costs in its most recent meeting, marking the tenth consecutive increase.

BoE ends interest rates hikes: Bank of England ends run of 14 straight interest rate hikes after cooler-than-expected inflation. The Monetary Policy Committee voted 5-4 in favour of maintaining this rate at its September meeting, with the four members preferring another 25 basis point hike to 5.5%.

BoJ sticks to ultra-low interest rate policy: Bank of Japan announced on Friday its widely expected decision to stick with an ultra-low interest rate policy, causing Japanese yen to fall. The policy comes even as Japan’s consumer price growth exceeded the central bank’s 2% target for the 17th consecutive month, with the “core” figure rising 3.1% in August.

🏦 Arm and Instacart's IPO

IPO - It's probably overhyped: Arm Holdings and Instacart fails to outperform after analysts gave lukewarm ratings to the 2 companies that recently held highly anticipated IPOs. Currently Arm trades at $51.32 (IPO price $51) while Instacart trades at $30 (also its IPO price).

Scathing reviews by analysts: BTIG analyst Jake Fuller gave Instacart a “neutral” rating and warned that the company faces heavy competition from DoorDash and Uber Technologies in the slowly expanding market of grocery delivery. Susquehanna analysts assigned Arm a “neutral” rating and US$48 price target, saying the chip designer “appears to be pushing royalty rates to the limit, while also adding lower margin ‘subsystems’ revenue”.

Revival IPOs seems more unlikely now: As suggested last week, the performance of Arm and Instacart is being closely watched by corporates, analysts and investors as it is seen as a "beacon to try to decipher what is the sentiment, overall, of this marketplace". While we should definitely still continue to observe longer, signs are definitely pointing that the IPO dry spell is likely to stay.


☕️ Quick fire happenings to note

  • The world is headed for a slowdown: Global growth will ease to 2.7% in 2024, the slowest since the Covid-19 outbreak, according to the latest OECD forecasts. This comes as China struggles economically and the hiking interest rates dampens activity.
  • PBOC's Trade Support Commitment: Pan Gongsheng, the Governor of the People's Bank of China, has announced during a symposium attended by representatives from various prominent foreign companies that the central bank will enhance its efforts to stabilize trade and enhance the business environment for foreign enterprises.
  • Bet against fossil fuel: A hedge fund manager who gained recognition by betting against fossil fuel stocks now acknowledges that this approach is no longer feasible, given the relentless rise in oil prices. James Jampel, the founder of HITE Hedge Asset Management in Massachusetts, maintains his belief that the long-term outlook for oil remains sluggish. However, he concedes that the timeline for this shift is more distant than he initially anticipated, making it unwise to continue shorting fossil fuel companies.
  • Diluting green policies: UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's decision to water down a key part of the UK’s green agenda (including delaying a 2030 UK ban on new gasoline and diesel cars and weakening a plan to phase out gas boilers) represents a gamble that conceding some ground to the climate-skeptic political right will appeal to Britons buffeted by a cost-of-living crisis.
  • Cisco continues a streak of acquisitions: Cisco agreed to buy  Splunk in a deal valued at about $28b, representing its biggest acquisition yet and a massive push into software and artificial intelligence-powered data analysis. Under CEO Chuck Robbins, Cisco has been trying to lessen its dependence on one-time sales of expensive hardware and shift toward software and services. Splunk is its most expensive foray into that area.
  • Chinese EV company Nio releases a smartphone: Chinese electric car brand Nio released an Android smartphone on Thursday, which the company expects at least half its users to buy. The phone, priced from around $900 to $1,000, is an Android device that’s about $150 cheaper versus a comparable Huawei phone. Electric car companies in China have sought to make in-car entertainment and mobile phone connectivity a selling point for their vehicles.
  • Disney wants more parks: Disney said in an SEC filing on Tuesday that it plans to invest $60b into its parks and cruises business over the next 10 years, doubling its investments from the last decade.